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CUSMA USMCA Review 2026: What Happens on July 1st and What to Expect

Written by Timothy Byrnes | June 01, 2026
Home Blog CUSMA USMCA Review 2026

June 2026 · Updated June 1, 2026 · By Jet Worldwide

The much-anticipated CUSMA/USMCA joint review is now weeks away, and the central question across the trade community is straightforward: will it be resolved — and if so, how soon? The short answer is that very little will be settled on July 1. Here is what the agreement requires, where things stand, and what Canadian exporters and importers should plan for.

Key Takeaways

  • July 1, 2026 triggers the mandatory review under Article 34.7 — it is a trigger date, not a deadline.
  • Three possible outcomes: 16-year extension, full withdrawal, or annual review cycles for up to 10 years.
  • A straightforward renewal is highly unlikely given current trade tensions.
  • Early engagement has been largely between the US and Mexico — Canada's role has been limited.
  • Expect a prolonged negotiation extending well into 2026 and beyond.

In This Article

What Does Article 34.7 of CUSMA Actually Require?

Under Article 34.7, CUSMA is subject to a formal joint review six years after implementation — July 1, 2026. But this date is a trigger, not a deadline. It initiates a mandatory conversation among Canada, the United States, and Mexico to assess whether to extend, adjust, or wind down the agreement.

This is the first time the review mechanism has ever been used, so there is no established blueprint for how the process will be conducted.

What Are the Three Possible Outcomes of the CUSMA Review?

The review process can lead to one of three outcomes:

1. Extension

A 16-year extension of the agreement, providing long-term stability for North American trade.

2. Annual Reviews

A transition into annual review cycles for up to 10 years, followed by expiration if no resolution is reached.

3. Withdrawal

A full withdrawal by any party, effectively ending the trilateral agreement.

Where Do Things Stand Right Now?

A straightforward renewal of CUSMA looks highly unlikely. Early rounds of engagement have taken place largely between the United States and Mexico, while Canada's role has been limited.

The review process opens the door to re-litigating longstanding trade irritants among all three parties.

How Have Tariff Measures Changed the Landscape?

Ongoing tariff measures have reshaped the broader trade environment. This executive authority -rather than requiring congressional legislation - is used more freely. With IEEPA being abolished, key tools that remain include:

Authority Legislation Basis for Restrictions
Section 122 Trade Act of 1974 Balance of payments and large trade deficits (currently challenged in court)
Section 301 Trade Act of 1974 Unfair foreign trade practices and IP violations
Section 232 Trade Expansion Act of 1962 National security threats from specific imports

These tools allow trade restrictions to be imposed under specific economic or national security conditions — and their expanded use has added significant pressure to the broader trade environment heading into the CUSMA review.

What Does the Shift in US Trade Strategy Mean for CUSMA?

These developments reflect a fundamental shift in U.S. trade strategy: trade is increasingly treated not as an economic matter but as a tool of foreign policy leverage. This more transactional approach carries directly into the CUSMA review process.

The review opens the door to re-litigating longstanding irritants rather than locking in the stability that businesses on both sides of the border depend on.

What Should Canadian Exporters and Importers Expect?

We expect the review process to extend beyond 2026. For Canadian exporters and importers, the practical takeaways are clear:

  • Plan for continued uncertainty.
  • Monitor developments closely and make necessary changes
  • Review supply chain contingency planning.
  • Understand your tariff exposure to Section 122, 232, and 301 tariffs

What is shaping up is a prolonged negotiation rather than a routine renewal. The three parties — Canada, the United States, and Mexico — will need to work through significant differences before any lasting resolution is reached.

Need help navigating CUSMA uncertainty?

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Frequently Asked Questions: CUSMA USMCA Review 2026

What happens to CUSMA on July 1, 2026?
July 1, 2026 triggers the mandatory joint review under Article 34.7 of CUSMA. It is a trigger date, not a deadline. Canada, the United States, and Mexico must begin formal consultations on whether to extend, adjust, or wind down the agreement.
What are the three possible outcomes of the CUSMA review?
A 16-year extension, a full withdrawal by any party, or a transition into annual review cycles for up to 10 years — followed by expiration if no resolution is reached.
Will CUSMA be renewed on July 1?
A straightforward renewal is highly unlikely. Current trade tensions and limited Canadian involvement in early discussions suggest the review process will extend well into 2026 and possibly beyond.
How do US tariff actions affect the CUSMA review?
Ongoing tariff measures under Section 122, Section 301, and Section 232 have reshaped the trade environment. The increased reliance on executive authority rather than congressional legislation reflects a shift toward using trade as a foreign policy tool, adding complexity to the CUSMA review.
What should Canadian exporters do during the CUSMA review?
Plan for continued uncertainty, monitor developments closely, review supply chain strategies, and understand your tariff exposure under current Section 122, 232, and 301 actions.

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